Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilience in consumption won’t last The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkish activity data for September show that industrial production has come under more pressure while retail sales have continued their remarkable resilience in the face of high inflation. On balance... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2022) -We are resending this publication due to an error in the previous email. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.- While retail sales kept rising for the ninth consecutive month in September... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 22) 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep.), Employment Cost Index (Q3) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected gain in retail sales in August and preliminary estimate of only a small decline in September show that higher interest rates are yet to weigh on consumption, which is... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Sep.) The weakness in retail sales and overshoot of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March public borrowing forecast won’t make the next Prime Minister’s task any easier in navigating the... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Another intervention wouldn’t reverse yen weakness With the yen currently trading just below 149, it now appears to be a question of when and not if policymakers step in again. But as recent weeks and the Asian Financial Crisis have shown, such... 17th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Wealth effects pose downside risks to consumption Australia’s record housing downturn may not result in dwellings investment falling quite as sharply as we’re anticipating. However, the largest wealth destruction in Australia’s modern history poses... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
