China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in February as export volumes picked up and import volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders surprised to the upside in January, but that still points to a fall in... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Activity data for the first two months were broadly as expected, showing a jump in consumer spending coupled with modest gains in investment and industrial output. High-frequency data suggest that... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.7 in February, from 47.4, leaves it firmly in contractionary territory. That should temper talk of a manufacturing resurgence on the back of... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m rebound in core durable goods orders in January rounds off a month of strong activity releases and suggests business investment will hold up a bit better in the first quarter than we had... 27th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2022) Private investment picked up firmly last quarter and although firms expect capital spending to remain relatively healthy, their projections are consistent with a slowdown in real terms this financial... 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack January strength unlikely to last The resurgence in activity and employment in January means that there is little chance of the economy falling into recession in the first quarter and we now expect GDP growth of 1.5% annualised. That... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
