UK Economics Update Pandemic recovery helped prevent recession The UK avoided a recession last year partly because of more spending by households on restaurants and trains and partly because of more investment by businesses in aircraft, cars and cruise ships... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2022) The trade deficit was virtually unchanged in January, as volumes and prices of exports and imports fell across the board. With the global downturn weighing on external demand, further export volume... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2022) 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack Consumers reopen their wallets The Lunar New Year holiday wasn’t quite back to normal this year as fears of spreading COVID to elderly relatives prevented many households from returning to their hometowns – long-distance journeys... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Nov. 2022) “Core” machinery orders fell to their lowest level since February 2022 in November, pointing to a contraction in spending on machinery and transport equipment in Q4 from Q3. The upshot is we now have... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong FDI inflows likely to continue in CEE The surge in FDI inflows to a 15-year high in Central and Eastern Europe last year will partly unwind this year given the weaker global macro backdrop. But we think that a large part of the increase... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Increasing doubt over Yield Curve Control’s longevity In less than two months, we should know who will replace Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, whose term ends on 8th April. Whoever replaces him will be under increasing pressure from the... 9th January 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s business investment position will get even worse UK investment is already languishing well below that of its G7 counterparts and we suspect its investment and productivity position will worsen relative to its peers by the end of 2024. This raises... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) Real consumption is on course for solid growth of 3.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the income and spending data show that it stalled in November. The soft durable goods orders data for last... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Falling inflation will be the big story of 2023 The November CPI report marked the second successive undershoot in inflation and there is mounting evidence that it will continue to fall sharply in 2023. (See Chart 1.) Core goods prices are coming... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still too strong for comfort The renewed rise in the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in November call into question the idea that the Bank of Canada has already finished its tightening cycle... 21st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
