India Economics Weekly

A bigger slice of Apple pie

Apple’s decision to shift some of its manufacturing into India – and out of China – is an example of how the global economy is “fracturing” into US- and China-aligned blocs: the topic of our 2022...

14th October 2022 · 4 mins read

CE Spotlight

The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains

Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned...

6th October 2022 · 20 mins read

Canada Economic Outlook

Modest recession could morph into something worse

The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of...

6th October 2022 · 20 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Recession will add to disinflationary pressure

We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive...

5th October 2022 · 24 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Bank of Japan will remain the outlier

In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade...

5th October 2022 · 24 mins read

Japan Data Response

Bank of Japan Tankan (Q3 2022)

Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the subsiding virus wave, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to worsen.

3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan BoJ Tankan (Q3 2022)

3rd October 2022 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long

The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...

22nd September 2022 · 11 mins read

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Aug.)

China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September...

16th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Japan Data Response

Japan Machinery Orders (Jul. 2022)

Although the surge in “core” machinery orders in July was driven by a handful of non-manufacturing sectors, the result still points to strong non-residential investment growth this quarter, chiming...

14th September 2022 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Businesses starting to feel the pain

After having previously held up remarkably well, it appears that the prospect of much higher energy prices are now taking their toll on business confidence. The fall in confidence appears consistent...

2nd September 2022 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2 2022)

The continued rise in machinery and equipment investment in Q2 won’t offset a plunge in construction investment, but firms’ optimistic capital plans suggest this will prove short-lived.

1st September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Private Capex (Q2 & 2022/23)

1st September 2022 · 2 mins read

US Data Response

Durable Goods (Jul.)

The stagnation in durable goods orders in July was principally due to a 50% m/m slump in defence aircraft orders, which are both volatile and not reflective of the strength of private demand...

24th August 2022 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Central banks beginning to shift focus

The growth outlook for the emerging world has taken a turn for the worse. The latest activity data for China suggest that the post-lockdown recovery has lost steam. The PBOC has responded by lowering...

23rd August 2022 · 9 mins read