Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (June) The slump in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs, released on Friday, suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the third quarter in a row in Q2. We expect the economy to remain... 26th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Manufacturing headwinds for German industrial rents Early 2023 data revealed that the German industrial market has slowed considerably following the exuberance of a year ago. And looking ahead the outlook is not much brighter. We were already... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May along with signs that core price pressures eased echoes the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany leads euro-zone into recession The downward revision to Germany’s first-quarter GDP data means its economy contracted by 0.8ppts during Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, leaving it much smaller than it was before the pandemic. What’s more, the... 26th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) The downward revision to Germany’s Q1 GDP means that the country has fallen into a technical recession and that euro-zone GDP probably stagnated in Q1 rather than expanding by 0.1% q/q. We expect... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update When will the ECB cut rates? History suggests that in the absence of a major financial shock, European central banks usually leave interest rates at their peak for a year or more. That’s consistent with our view that the ECB is... 24th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour supply holding up relatively well The aggregate supply of labour in the euro-zone has recovered comparatively well from the pandemic, albeit with big differences between the major economies. But despite this, the labour market is very... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The Ifo Business Climate Index rose again in April but remained in contractionary territory. This is contrast to the PMIs which point to much stronger economic performance at the start of Q2. 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive big increase in German industrial production in February all but confirms that GDP returned to growth in Q1. The industrial resilience may continue in the coming months but we... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
