Capital Daily What might move euro-zone bond yields now? We doubt that ECB policy will have much impact on German bond yields this year and next – if anything, risks are skewed to the upside. But the outlook may be a bit brighter for Italian bonds, and we... 7th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monthly data overstating German industrial decline Monthly industrial production data have been overstating the decline in German industry. Nonetheless, the more accurate gross value added measure still shows that activity has been falling. 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Underlying inflation still a worry, more German gloom The recent increase in surveys of price pressures and the strong German wage figures released this week suggest there is still not enough evidence to convince the ECB that underlying inflationary... 23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy continued to shrink in Q1. 23rd February 2024 · 1 min read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction weakness to resume Euro-zone construction output picked up in December, but remained well below last year’s peak. We expect it to drop again in 2024, in part due to a continued dismal performance by the sector in... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t expect a strong rebound in Germany The German government’s reduction in its forecast for GDP growth from 1.3% to 0.2% brings it closer to our long-held view that the economy will not grow at all this year. But there are growing risks... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone set for years of austerity-lite After years of fiscal largesse, austerity is back. We suspect that budget cuts will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by only around 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points per year over the next five years. But the... 1st February 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP Inflation (January 2024) National data published so far suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone came down a little more than we had expected in January. This makes us more confident in our view that the ECB... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Swiss policymakers may cut rates before ECB ECB policymakers have set out their stall ahead of next Thursday’s meeting and will continue to push back against expectations of early rate cuts – notwithstanding mounting evidence that the economy... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
