Europe Economics Update Debt deal not the end of Greece’s problems The successful Greek debt exchange should ensure that the second bail-out package is formally signed off before long, but it leaves Greek government debt still at an unsustainably high level. 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece still in a "debt trap" Greece’s bail-out reduces the risk of an imminent default, but a closer look at the economic and fiscal projections that the package is based on adds to evidence that the deal is a fudge. The only way... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek rescue deal has shallow foundations The new rescue deal for Greece should buy the euro-zone a bit of time. But we think that the package is based on unrealistic economic assumptions and will be no more successful than the first deal... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a Greek default be another Lehman's moment? The global fall-out from a long-anticipated Greek government default alone should be small and manageable, even if it takes the form of a “disorderly” default without the agreement of private... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Walking away from Greece would be a big gamble The direct economic and financial ramifications of a disorderly Greek default may not be very much worse than those of the planned “voluntary” debt restructuring. But the broader implications for the... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield recovery on the brink of going into reverse The final quarter of 2011 brought the strongest evidence yet that the downward phase in euro-zone commercial property yields has not only come to an end, but has started to go into reverse. Falling... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink, yet again The immense difficulties in finalising a second rescue package and debt restructuring for Greece have pushed the country right to the brink once more. Even if the policymakers manage again to step... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece Greek policymakers may soon agree on a new austerity and structural reform programme, reducing the chances of a disorderly default in March. Nonetheless, any deal is unlikely to prevent Greece’s... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook On the cusp of a fresh downturn The recovery in capital values seen in most euro-zone property markets over the past year or so, looks set to be reversed in 2012. As the economy slides back into a deep recession, occupier demand... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt deal won’t eliminate break-up risks The Greek government appears to be close to agreeing a deal with bond-holders which should both reduce its debt burden and ensure that it gets its second bail-out in time to finance the redemption of... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
