Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Contagion is still the key danger The direct economic and financial effects of a Greek exit from the euro-zone need not be catastrophic. The key question remains whether the policymakers can prevent contagion effects from prompting a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & German ZEW (May) The provisional Q1 euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession – temporarily. But the region remains worryingly reliant on growth in Germany and a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election deadlock raises euro exit risk The failure of the Greek election to produce a new government provides some support to our view that Greece could leave the euro-zone as soon as the end of this year. 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Recession to act as a drag on occupier markets and rents Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election won’t buy much time Greece’s general election should result in the formation of a new Government that is, on paper at least, committed to the terms of the recently agreed second bail-out deal. But with the economy still... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) April’s EC business and consumer survey confirmed the downbeat picture painted by other recent indicators and dashed any lingering hopes that the euro-zone economy may escape a double-dip recession. 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis unsolved as growth outlook darkens Hopes that the crisis in the euro-zone had been solved by Greece’s debt restructuring and the ECB’s recent liquidity injections have faded. Despite some signs of resilience in Germany, the economic... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which European office markets are most at risk of oversupply? Within Europe, office markets in the euro-zone’s peripheral region appear to be most at risk of oversupply over the next two years. But less obviously, office markets in Amsterdam and Budapest also... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB really solved the crisis? The ECB’s latest liquidity operations appear to have averted, or at least delayed, a looming disaster in the euro-zone banking sector. But it would be wrong to think that they have solved the region’s... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal does not eliminate break-up risks On the face of it, recent developments like the Greek debt restructuring deal and the ECB’s liquidity operations appear to have strongly undermined our view that a limited form of euro-zone break-up... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
