Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out 2 will merely delay the inevitable A second Greek bail-out package, perhaps involving some form of voluntary debt rescheduling, won’t address Greece’s fundamental problems and won’t prevent a major restructuring in the future. 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would banks cope with a Greek debt "reprofiling"? Some form of Greek debt rescheduling would certainly have rather less severe implications for the euro-zone’s banks than a “hard” default. Nonetheless, were the process badly handled, it could still... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No "soft" options for Greece There are growing signs that the EU will allow Greece to undertake a “soft” debt restructuring, probably involving the voluntary exchange of debt for bonds of longer maturities. This could ease the... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Greece? European officials have bowed to the inevitable and accepted the need to extend Greece’s bail-out package. But we still think that it is inevitable that Greece will have to restructure its debts at... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek default worries deepen Last week was another bad one for Greece. Markets are now increasingly convinced not only that Greece will default, but that it may happen before the European Stabilisation Mechanism comes into... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece still facing a funding crisis? Recent financial market developments suggest that Greece is as far away as ever from convincing investors that it can get its public finances on a stable footing without defaulting. What’s more, there... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Worsening economic outlook adding to Greece's problems The recent news that the Greek economy remains deep in recession will add to fears that the Government may struggle to meet its budget deficit goals and will do nothing to ease concerns about Greece’s... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal position remains deeply worrying On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can anything save Ireland from a Greek tragedy? The further rise in Irish bond yields over recent days has intensified speculation that Ireland will soon be forced to follow Greece in turning to international financial support. Is there anything... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's problems still mounting Reports that Greece’s 2010 budget deficit is likely to have narrowed much less sharply than the Government had previously predicted emphasise that its problems are far from over. Greece will now come... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB sitting stubbornly on the sidelines The latest speech by Governing Council member Axel Weber has highlighted the growing divergence between the ECB and more pro-active central banks elsewhere. We hope that the Bank might yet take bolder... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek Budget still leaves plenty to do The fact that the Greek Government has announced that it expects to reduce its budget deficit by more than the IMF and EC have demanded in 2010 and 2011 is an indication of the great strides that it... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s small rise in the German Ifo brings hope that the euro-zone’s largest economy is faring very well for now. But with export growth already slowing, we expect the index to follow the PMI... 24th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's fiscal headwinds gather strength With Greece likely to receive its second tranche of loans from the euro-zone and IMF next week, the Government will be able to meet its financing needs for the next few months. But Q2’s dreadful GDP... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal squeeze taking its toll on the economy Recent news has confirmed that the Greek central government is meeting its ambitious deficit reduction goals, adding to evidence that it will receive its second tranche of euro-zone and IMF funds in... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
