Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s euro-zone PMI survey is consistent with our view that the economy will grow more slowly than most anticipate this year, while inflation will overshoot expectations. Commodities Drop-In (24... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of going cold turkey with Russian oil An EU embargo on Russian oil would push up oil prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis facing consumers. However, while there would be logistical challenges, oil supplies would be easier to... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The huge fall in consumer confidence in March suggests that consumption may have contracted as the war in Ukraine and higher energy prices reduced households’ willingness and ability to spend. In turn... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update War could cause euro-zone manufacturing recession Just as the supply problems facing euro-zone manufacturers showed tentative signs of easing, the war in Ukraine has created new headwinds. It would not be surprising if industrial output fell in the... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war Next week we will learn more about the extent to which the Ukraine war is impacting economic activity. We have cut our GDP forecast by one percentage point for this year, but the risks to that... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook War in Ukraine adds to uncertainty; retail most at risk While the direct impact of the war in Ukraine is likely to be small, we think there will be indirect consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Economic growth is expected to be slower... 18th March 2022 · 31 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q4) The latest data show that euro-zone wage growth remained subdued at the end of last year, despite reports of widespread labour shortages. The tightening in the labour market that we expect is likely... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus unlikely to be source of financial instability While Cyprus’s strong ties to Russia make it is vulnerable to recession, the country’s public finances and banking sector are in better shape than they were before the crisis which took place a decade... 17th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.) With the war in Ukraine pushing up energy and food prices and potentially exacerbating supply problems, we think euro-zone inflation will remain around 6% until Q4 and average well above 2% next year... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war will push up euro-zone food inflation Food inflation in the euro-zone is on the rise and the war in Ukraine will make matters worse. While policymakers might normally “look through” a period of high food inflation, with the headline rate... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Russian economic crisis will hit Cyprus hard Cyprus is by far the most exposed euro-zone economy to the collapse in Russia’s economy and it now looks very likely to fall into recession in the coming quarters. In this Update, we take a look at... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EZ corporate & sovereign spreads may converge again Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the ECB Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB accelerates taper despite Ukraine war In today’s monetary policy statement, the ECB said the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a watershed moment for Europe, but it concluded that it does not require a big change in monetary policy. Indeed... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
