Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2022) and Flash HICP (April) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q1 means that the region will avoid a technical recession in the first half of the year. But rising inflation and the fallout from the Ukraine war mean that GDP... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update War impact reinforces investment slowdown While Q1 investment data showed further strength, the impact of the war in Ukraine on investor sentiment, economic growth and interest rates support our view that pan-European (excl. UK) investment... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas price cap won’t solve Spain’s inflation problem The cap on the wholesale natural gas price for the Iberian market will result in a bigger fall in energy inflation in Spain than we had previously expected. It might also dampen underlying price... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (April) The further rise in headline inflation in Germany, and increase in the underlying rate in Spain, suggest that euro-zone inflation will come in around 7.4% in April. This will do nothing to change the... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property yields to rise sooner A weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates this year and next mean that we now think euro-zone all-property yields will reach their trough by the end of this year and will come... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Three key calls on the euro-zone In our latest European Economic Outlook, we set out three non-consensus forecasts for the euro-zone. First, we think inflation will overshoot expectations this year. Second, the hit that this will... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (April) The Ifo survey for April was a little stronger than we had expected and suggests that the services sector in particular is growing rapidly. But the index is still well below its pre-Ukraine war levels... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron 2.0: pension reform and cost of living in focus The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron gives him five more years to improve France’s economic potential and its public finances, with pension reform and the green transition central to... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike With several members of the ECB Governing Council coming out in favour of a July rate hike this week we are feeling more confident in our forecast that the Bank will raise its deposit rate to +0.25%... 22nd April 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in April suggests that the services sector rebound from the Covid restrictions earlier in the year is offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector. But with... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Mar.) Headline inflation rose to 7.4% in March and further increases are likely. This will put a big dent in consumer spending, so we think that 2022 will be a year of stagflation for the euro-zone. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update President Le Pen: seismic shift or five-year blip? A win for Marine Le Pen would need to be followed by a strong showing for her party in June’s legislative elections if she is to implement most of her programme. A government of national unity or... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
