Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU mulls another round of joint bond issuance The EU is considering more joint bond issuance, reportedly of around €200bn or 1.4% of EU GDP. If this is agreed, the devil will be in the detail and the amounts involved may fall short of some... 9th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EU’s pivot away from Russian gas will come at a price While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam office rental growth to outperform EZ While we don’t think that 2021’s strong pace of prime office rental growth in Amsterdam will be sustained, we still expect growth to outperform the euro-zone over the next couple of years, averaging... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising down our euro-zone GDP forecasts The ratcheting-up of sanctions on Russia and the further surge in commodity prices this week mean we are revising down our euro-zone growth forecast for 2022. Exports to Russia will collapse while... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The small rise in retail sales in January, after a steep fall in December, suggests that Omicron remained a drag on consumption. Although spending will have rebounded in February, higher energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war to keep fiscal stance loose for longer The EU’s decision to suspend its debt reduction rule for another year gives countries the green light to ramp up spending on defence and cushion the blow from higher energy prices. Depending on how... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into supply-chain links with Russia While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Feb.) After February’s surprisingly strong inflation outturn and with energy prices surging, euro-zone inflation is very likely to rise above 6% in the coming months. It then looks set to remain well above... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy prices to push inflation up furthest in periphery The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices will have a bigger effect on inflation in Italy and Spain this year than in Germany and France. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The increase in inflation in Germany and much bigger jumps elsewhere mean that euro-zone inflation for February will come in well above expectations. However, the ECB has bigger concerns at present... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis won’t cause euro-zone recession The Ukraine crisis will be a drag on the euro-zone economy due to its effect on trade with Russia and the impact of higher energy prices on household consumption. However, this will be cushioned by... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
