Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), IP (Jun.) & German ZEW (Aug.) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 will make policymakers at the ECB more confident that they are right to be winding down their asset purchases. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB QE to remain an important policy tool Even after Q2’s disappointing euro-zone GDP data, we still think that the ECB is unlikely to extend its net asset purchases into next year. But it might vary the reinvestment of funds from its huge... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul.) & Unemp. (Jun.) Q2’s 0.3% quarterly rise in euro-zone GDP was a disappointment given hopes that the slowdown in Q1 reflected temporary factors. We still see growth regaining some pace as the year goes on, but for now... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports our view that euro-zone growth is slowing only slightly from a strong pace. But producers’ price expectations remain weak and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB patient about rate hikes despite positive outlook The ECB made no changes to its policy or forward guidance today and strongly endorsed financial markets’ expectations for interest rates to remain on hold until autumn next year. It also made clear... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey bodes well for growth The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will continue to perform well. And there is little sign that the uncertainty about the Italian Government’s policies... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone PMI comes as something of a disappointment but the index is still consistent with a decent pace of GDP growth at the start of Q3. Accordingly, the ECB is likely to push... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Optimistic but cautious Having announced last month that asset purchases will end in December, the ECB is unlikely to make any policy changes at its July meeting. We doubt that President Draghi will offer more explicit... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks still in the minority In an otherwise quiet week, the main economic news was the publication of the minutes of June’s ECB meeting. They showed that members of the Governing Council “widely agreed” to update their forward... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production offered welcome reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 did not mark the start of a downward trend. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were a little weaker than expected, but still imply that the consumer sector fared better in Q2 than in Q1. And looking ahead, we think that household spending will... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is euro-zone inflation set to take off? Germany is the only major euro-zone economy where underlying inflation looks set to rise meaningfully in the next year or so. But even there, inflation is likely to remain lower than in major... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s unemployment data revealed that the steady recovery in the euro-zone labour market had continued despite signs of a slowdown in the wider economy. But with wage growth remaining subdued, the ECB... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
