Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the Composite PMI raises doubts about whether the economy will rebound after a weak Q3. This won’t be enough to stop the ECB from ending its asset purchases next month, but it... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Autos likely to remain a drag on euro-zone equities We think that equities in the euro-zone will be caught in the crossfire of a stock market sell-off in the US next year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the S&P 500 to fall by 14% in... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), IP (Sep.) & Employment (Q3) Q3’s slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth partly reflected temporary factors, so we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better in the coming quarters. This would allow the ECB to push ahead... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth slows again Investor demand for commercial property assets in the euro-zone continues to see prime yields edge lower, particularly in the office and industrial sectors, albeit falls of 4bps and 7bps respectively... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data rounded off a weak quarter for the sector, implying that overall household spending rose only marginally in Q3. Nevertheless, we still think that the outlook... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) October’s PMI data suggest that most of the major euro-zone economies will perform a little better in Q4 than in Q3. The exception is Italy, where the PMI implies that output contracted. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests highlight Italy risks The EU bank stress tests suggest that even in a severe economic downturn, the region’s largest lenders would remain solvent. That said, the EBA’s very pessimistic “adverse scenario” might still be too... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s problems shouldn’t stop euro’s revival in 2019 Although Italy’s problems are likely to continue to weigh on the euro next year, we still think that the currency will strengthen against the dollar in response to a favourable shift in monetary... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Emissions testing to blame for Q3 slowdown Data on car production imply that delays related to emissions testing may have been entirely responsible for the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.2% in Q3. While the underlying... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) October’s increase in euro-zone inflation supports the ECB’s judgement that underlying price pressures are gradually building despite the slowdown in activity over recent months. 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Equity sell-off unlikely to derail policy tightening Despite the recent plunge in equity prices, it looks highly likely that the Fed will raise interest rates again in December and then press ahead with two more rate hikes in the first half of 2019. But... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EZ Q3 GDP (Prelim. Flash) & EC Survey (Oct.) While the 0.2% expansion in the euro-zone economy was disappointing, it probably in part reflects temporary factors. As a result, we expect there to be some recovery in the coming quarters. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticks to its plans despite weaker data The ECB today reaffirmed its plans to normalise monetary policy gradually, expressing little concern about the recent run of weaker economic data or the clash between Italy and the European Commission... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
