Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The unexpectedly sharp decline in the Composite PMI in October left it pointing to the slowest pace of quarterly euro-zone GDP growth for two and a half years. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Bank Lending Survey (Q3) The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey provided further evidence that euro-zone economic growth will continue to hold up fairly well. And, at least for now, there is little sign that the political... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to stick to the script amid mixed opinions The ECB has certainly given some mixed messages over recent weeks, with some Council members judging that the first rate hike should come during next summer while others assert that Q4 2019 is more... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an Italy-EU budget clash On its own, the inevitable clash between the EU and the Italian Government is unlikely to have much of an economic impact, at least in the near term. However, the situation could well escalate next... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s euro-zone industrial production data were pretty strong, particularly given the drag from temporary disruption in the car industry. But the big picture is that this year’s general slowdown in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Another look at the threat from quantitative tightening A year after the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet, global central banks’ net asset purchases have slowed sharply, and they are set to turn negative in January. However, we doubt that this will... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth in core and periphery set to diverge We think that faster wage growth in the core countries will drive aggregate euro-zone wage growth up over the next few years, prompting the ECB to raise interest rates. But wage growth in the... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that spending growth failed to gain pace in Q3, but there are good reasons to think that sales volumes will accelerate as inflation falls in the months... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.), Manuf. PMI (Sep.) August’s further fall in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that wage growth is likely to rise further in the coming months, supporting the case for gradual ECB policy normalisation. But there... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) The further decline in core inflation in September was a little disappointing and, against a backdrop of slower economic growth, will ensure that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s fall in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence that economic growth is slowing. This slowdown isn’t sharp enough to deter the ECB from ending its asset... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The softening of the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to evidence that the region’s economy has lost some momentum after 2017’s very strong expansion. But as the index is still consistent... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will euro-zone office yields still rise in 2019? Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
