Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB policy likely to push bond yields and euro down While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that while consumer spending growth will maintain a steady pace, investment growth will weaken. It also implies that future TLTRO-III operations will be a... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation is still low Underlying inflation pressures in the euro-zone have been building over the past five years, but so slowly that it’s barely perceptible. And rather than being the start of a new trend, the jump in... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Christine Lagarde’s honeymoon continues At Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as ECB President next week, the Governing Council is sure to leave the main policy settings unchanged. The increase in inflation at the end of last year means... 16th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has not shut the door on further easing The account of December’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Governing Council is content to leave monetary policy unchanged for some time. But it left the option of further easing on the table – an... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another false dawn for inflation? We doubt that the increase in core inflation late last year marks the start of a sustained upward trend. After all, inflation has risen on several previous occasions recently, only to fall back again... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone starts the year on a weak note Hopes that the euro-zone economy will gather pace in the coming months are likely to be dashed. The latest business surveys point to growth stabilising but not recovering in the final quarter of last... 9th January 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) lthough the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s inflation data will provide some relief to policymakers at the ECB, but we are still sceptical that core inflation is about to start on a sustained upward trend. In our view, the Bank’s... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Dec.) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December was revised up slightly, but taken together with the other available evidence, this still suggests that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in Q4. And Germany... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 2020 will be another disappointing year The latest data suggest that the euro-zone economy might have avoided a further slowdown in Q4 last year, adding to the evidence that growth is “bottoming out”. However, the economy seems to have... 3rd January 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ troubles likely to re-emerge in 2020s The euro-zone is ending this decade in better shape than it ended the last one. But its fundamental problems have not been resolved, so we expect the region to face serious challenges in the decade to... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
