Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in December came as no surprise after the very weak national data already published. The timelier surveys suggest that industry will continue to... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth likely to remain weak in Q1 This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone, and we now expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy failed to grow at all in Q4 while German GDP contracted. While... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of coronavirus small but increasing Provided that the coronavirus is brought under control reasonably soon, the consequences for the euro-zone economy should be quite small. Nonetheless, with growth likely to be very sluggish in any... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone fiscal policy less effective than it once was Hopes for a substantial boost to economic growth in the euro-zone from fiscal policy in the next year or two are likely to be disappointed. It seems likely that any fiscal stimulus will be very small... 6th February 2020 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property investment to hold up in 2020 The latest data revealed that commercial property investment in the euro-zone held steady at a record high level. And with favourable relative pricing and capital readily available, we think that... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that household consumption growth slowed sharply in Q4. Meanwhile, the upward revision to January’s euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How might coronavirus impact European high streets? A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery from weak Q4 will be slow and gradual The raft of Q4 GDP data published this week were weaker than we or the consensus had expected. While the surveys for January show a small improvement in sentiment and activity, they are still... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Coronavirus likely to have small effect on EZ economy As long as the number of coronavirus cases remains low in Europe and contained elsewhere in the world, the impact of the virus on euro-zone GDP is likely to be small and temporary. It would need to be... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Jan.) The unchanged reading for the euro-zone’s Composite PMI in January leaves it still consistent with fairly slow GDP growth. We think that the economy will continue to grow at a meagre pace in 2020. 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No change in ECB dovish stance for now The ECB left its policy settings unchanged today, made little change to its assessment of the economic outlook and said nothing new know about the strategy review. While the markets are pricing in no... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greater focus on housing wouldn’t alter ECB’s stance The ECB could decide in its strategy review to include owner-occupied housing costs in the measure of inflation which it targets. But we think it is unlikely to do so and, in any case, such a change... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
