Europe Economics Update Only small fiscal stimulus for the euro-zone next year Calls for much looser fiscal policy in the euro-zone are falling on deaf ears. While the Netherlands and Germany have set out fiscal stimuli for 2020, each has past form for running tighter policy... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Are negative policy rates hurting EZ bank lending? In our view, claims that the ECB’s negative deposit rate is weighing heavily on bank lending in the euro-zone are wide of the mark. In fact, we suspect that policymakers will cut the deposit rate even... 19th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) Although euro-zone industrial production edged up in September, the sector still fared very poorly in Q3 overall and the business surveys suggest that the region’s industrial recession has further to... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EC growth forecasts still too optimistic Regardless of the outcome of Spain’s latest general election on Sunday, we think its economy is set to slow. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy should have narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q3 (data... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook remains bleak Although the euro-zone economy grew by more than expected in Q3, helped by solid growth in France and Spain, the overall picture remains fairly gloomy. Euro-zone GDP expanded by only 0.2% q/q, and... 6th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest household consumption made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, the upward revision to October’s euro-zone Composite PMI still leaves... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct) & France GDP (Q3) The decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in October adds to the evidence that the economy started Q4 on weak footing. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB change under Christine Lagarde? As part of its forthcoming review under Christine Lagarde, the ECB is likely to change its inflation target and make its voting system more transparent. Further ahead, it will have bigger issues to... 29th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi bows out, but further policy support to come Outgoing President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s decision last month to introduce a raft of measures and downplayed the Governing Council’s divisions. As euro-zone growth is set to remain weak and... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s marginal rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI is fairly disappointing after September’s large fall and reinforces our view that economic growth in the currency union is at a virtual... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities will fall by less than US equities in our view Equities in the euro-zone have outperformed those in the US since early October. While we expect this trend to continue, we think that both will fall in the rest of this year, as global growth slows... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to evidencethat the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish and in need of further policy support. 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts (and charts) on the auto sector Our best guess is that vehicle production in the euro-zone will stabilise at around its current level over the next year. If so, the sector would subtract 0.2% from GDP this year, but neither add to... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
