Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (June) The increase in German headline and core inflation in June was mainly due to base effects. Euro-zone headline inflation probably still fell but the core rate is likely to have been little changed... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 1688652000 Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in June, and our regional-weighted headline measure points to lacklustre GDP growth... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (Jun.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (May 2023) Higher interest rates continued to weigh on bank lending in May, particularly in the housing market. This effect will only intensify as the Bank of England raises interest rates from 5.00% now to a... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2023) The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Falls in CEE interest rate expectations look overdone Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Higher rates make further house price falls inevitable Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. The latest surge in mortgage rates to... 28th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy HICP (June 2023) The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data suggest recession will drag on The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will underperform the ECB and consensus forecasts. 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t lose sleep over Bundesbank losses The Bundesbank may make large losses in the coming years but these will be paper losses only, will have no impact on the government’s fiscal position, and are likely to fall over time. While the... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
