Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in December but is likely to increase over the coming months as the economy falls into recession. That said, the increase will probably be smaller... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) Given very stretched mortgage affordability, it was unsurprising to see house prices continue to decline at the beginning of 2023. The fall in house prices since their peak last August grew to 3.2% as... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Employment has been resilient so far While we expect employment to weaken, it’s happening at a glacial pace. That feeds into our view that once interest rates peak (perhaps at 4.50% up from 3.50% now) they will stay high for all of this... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New euro-zone forecasts: recession and slow recovery We think that the euro-zone will enter a recession in the first half of this year and then experience a slow recovery. Our new GDP forecasts show a 0.5% contraction in 2023 and growth of only 0.8%... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) A further slump in mortgage approvals in December, to the lowest level since the height of the pandemic, confirmed that the extremely high cost of mortgage borrowing has caused more buyers to withdraw... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined. As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank lending Survey (Q4 2022) Much like the latest money and credit data, the Q4 Bank Lending Survey painted a much more downbeat picture of economic prospects than the latest business surveys. Banks are tightening their lending... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Worse to come, but UK assets to outperform in 2024 While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
