Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) Economic sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe picked up again in most countries in January and our regional-weighted measure hit a four-month high. We still think that GDP in most countries will... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022) The fall in German GDP in Q4 shows that the energy crisis started to dent activity at the end of last year. This pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the euro-zone and... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2022) The 4.9% increase in Polish GDP over 2022 as a whole is consistent with a slowdown in growth to around 1.6% y/y in Q4 and a small quarterly decline in output of around 0.5% q/q, confirming that the... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for euro-zone markets A streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone has given markets there a boost this year. But with much of the good news seemingly already discounted, and, in our view, a still... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls to ease in 2023 Yields have continued to surprise on the upside, with the all-property equivalent yield rising by 106bps in the three months to December. That matches the worst months of the GFC, and even though... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnating; inflation volatility ahead The recent run of better-than-expected activity data in the euro-zone only look good compared to previously dire expectations. The big picture is that the euro-zone’s growth prospects look bleak. Next... 27th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation pressures easing, but too soon to sound the all clear The data this week provided further signs that goods pipeline pressures are easing. More importantly, we’re starting to see the first concrete signs of an easing in services pipeline pressures. But... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Get ready for a German inflation surprise in January The reversal of temporary subsidies and changes to weightings will probably push headline German HICP inflation back up in January. But the bigger picture remains that the headline rate will fall... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hawkish ECB will weigh on euro-zone investment Euro-zone investment contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think further interest rate rises will prolong this weakness throughout much of this year. But we expect a recovery in transactions towards... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending weak and savers locking up their cash December’s euro-zone money and credit data show that the effects of rising interest rates were starting to be felt. Households and firms shifted their money into longer-term deposits which are less... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4) Spain’s GDP increased in Q4 and is performing better than we expected only a couple of months ago. But Spain is still a laggard in Europe, with the economy smaller than it was before Covid. We think... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of UK equities may fade Although we think there is still a decent case for UK equities to continue outperforming those in the US over the next few years, we don’t expect the UK’s stock market to perform significantly better... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
