Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a reckoning for European offices? The latest MSCI data indicate that values in western European office markets have held up better since the start of the pandemic when compared with the US and UK. But given these cities face similar... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage hike and FX mortgage ruling The Polish government’s proposal this week to increase the national minimum wage by another eye-watering 20% or so in 2024 means that wage and inflation pressures could prove even more sticky than we... 16th June 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Growing pains in the gilt, mortgage and rental markets The surge in gilt yields above the level reached after the Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget last September has pushed mortgage rates even higher and illustrates that most of the drag on real activity and... 16th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors may be underestimating eventual rate cuts How low Fed and ECB policy rates will go, when they are eventually normalised, is at least as important for financial markets as the precise timings of the ends of tightening cycles, in our view. We... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation falling but SNB set to hike rates further Policymakers are likely to raise the policy rate by 50bp to 2% next Thursday, despite inflation falling sharply this year. And SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s view that Switzerland’s neutral interest... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Another look at the underperformance of Gilts Although we no longer expect Gilts to outperform in local-currency terms, we do think they’re set to hold up better against Treasuries and Bunds over the rest of this year than they have done lately. 15th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Fed and ECB to hike in July, but US & EZ bond yields may fall While the ECB and the Fed took slightly different paths this week, we think they will both tighten policy again in July. Nonetheless, we still think government bond yields in the US and the euro-zone... 15th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response UK Monthly GDP (Apr. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in April, following March’s 0.3% m/m contraction will further raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession this year. But the rise in GDP is not as good as it... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation fell back into single digit territory in May, but the underlying rate came down a bit less than anticipated. This suggests there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riksbank... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Sticky UK inflation is unlikely to keep Gilt yields higher forever The 10-year Gilt yield has continued to march higher on the back of recent data releases, outpacing the equivalent Treasury yield and putting upward pressure on the pound against the greenback. But we... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The BoE's June meeting – Policy rates, mortgage rates and the macro outlook 1687442400 With inflation still running hot, the Bank of England has little choice to keep raising interest rates.
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 23) With mortgage rates surging, the number of loans issued to buy a home dropped sharply in Q1, with Buy-to-Let lending seeing the most severe drop. Those that did press ahead with a home purchase... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s government spending spree looks unsustainable The Polish government’s ambitious plans to raise defence and social spending are unlikely to be achieved without pushing up the public debt-to-GDP ratio later this decade. Imminent risks to the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
