Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s debt upgrade, Argentina-IMF, easing cycles Fitch’s decision to upgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating this week provides another sign that fiscal concerns in the country are easing, but we remain sceptical that the government will be able to... 28th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? Recently-announced measures by Argentina’s government are merely stopgap solutions and appear to be aimed at staving off a disorderly devaluation ahead of upcoming elections rather than stabilising... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update The Mexican “super peso” looks poised for a sharp fall The Mexican peso’s relentless rise against the US dollar and most other major currencies is increasingly at odds with macroeconomic fundamentals. We think the peso is vulnerable to an abrupt fall over... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate eased further in the first half of July but the fresh rise in services inflation will be a concern for Banxico officials. The tightening cycle is unlikely to be... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily JPY & MXN: trading places We expect the fortunes of the Japanese yen and Mexican peso – which have both been outliers in different ways lately – to soon reverse, as souring risk appetite unwinds some “carry trade” and their... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s sticking plaster, EU trade deal, rate cuts June trade figures out this week reinforced how perilous Argentina's balance of payments situation is, but officials continue to opt for temporary fixes rather than addressing the root problem - the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is a stronger peso harming Mexico’s economy? Mexico’s exports have fared well recently and the current account deficit remains small. But a closer look suggests that the strength of the peso is causing dynamics in the balance of payments to... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentina’s primary election The latest polls ahead of next month’s primaries in Argentina suggest that the country could buck the regional trend by electing a more market-friendly government. In this Update we assess the... 19th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile’s recovery is set to surprise on the upside The large macroeconomic imbalances that built up during Chile’s post-pandemic recovery have eased substantially, which is likely to prompt the central bank to deliver more rate cuts than almost any... 17th July 2023 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Public finance risks in Colombia, boom in Mexico? The concerns about Colombia’s public finances that flared up this week are warranted in our view. We think that the public debt burden will remain well above its pre-pandemic level and higher than in... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in May means that the sector has now reversed all of the decline in output recorded in March. And more timely indicators point... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2023) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting on 2nd August. We have pencilled in a... 11th July 2023 · 2 mins read
