Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external imbalances starting to unwind Having ballooned during the post-pandemic recovery, Colombia’s current account deficit has started to narrow and should continue to do so in the coming quarters. This, alongside the shift in financing... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (July 2023) The larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m decline in Brazilian industrial production in July, taken together with weakness in some of the surveys for August, suggests that the sector may contract in q/q terms... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market... 1st September 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2023) The much faster-than-expected Brazilian Q2 GDP growth figure of 0.9% q/q suggests that the economy is in stronger health than many – ourselves included – had thought. We think growth will be weaker... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is political risk rising? From military uprisings to election upsets 1694095200 Military coups are sweeping Francophone Africa, Argentina’s wildcard presidential candidate is suddenly an election favourite and Vladimir Putin’s war is eating away at Russian macro stability.
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: investment set to remain weak Fixed investment has been the weak spot in Colombia’s strong post-pandemic recovery and it is likely to remain subdued over the next couple of years due to a combination of the fragile political... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Dollarisation not a silver bullet for Argentina History suggests that dollarisation, which is at the heart of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei’s policy platform, is a surefire way to get inflation under control. But whether this... 30th August 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s fiscal framework, Ecuador’s vote Panama's economy will bear the brunt of the disruption at the Panama Canal caused by a severe drought. But given the Canal's importance to global trade, there are also likely to be global implications... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.2% y/y in the middle of the month (and the prospect of further increases over the rest of Q3) are likely to dash hopes that the central bank... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate declined further in the first half of August, but sticky services inflation will remain a concern for the central bank. This, alongside hawkish comments from officials... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dominican Republic’s economy set for a slowdown The Dominican Republic recorded an impressive post-pandemic recovery, but we think that a combination of a fading boost from tourism, weakness in the US and tight fiscal policy will cause growth to... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deeper in crisis, Ecuador votes Last weekend’s presidential primary elections in Argentina (known as the PASO) sent the economy deeper into crisis. Although the results probably portend a shift to the right (and more investor... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2023) Chile’s GDP contracted by a shallower-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q2, but the fall in output alongside downwards revisions to GDP growth in Q4 and Q1 will keep the door open for the central bank to... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
