Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2) The larger-than-expected 1.0% q/q contraction in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be followed by further weakness over the coming quarters. We expect this to prompt BanRep to join other central banks... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What happens after EM currency crises? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in more than 80% of cases in the... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Argentina Devaluation and Interest Rate Hike The news just out that Argentina has devalued the peso by around 20% against the dollar (to 350/$) and hiked the policy interest rate by 21%-pts to 118% underscores that the economy is lurching... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s PASO brings shock therapy a step closer The surprisingly strong showing for far-right self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei in Argentina’s primary elections (known as the PASO) suggests that there is popular appetite for a shock... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina votes, more good news on inflation Argentines vote on Sunday in presidential primaries, known as the PASO, which should give a first sign of whether the country will buck the regional political trend and shift to the right at the... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering interest rates at its September meeting. By the same token, however, the figure... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back in July, to 4.8% y/y, but with services inflation proving to be sticky, we doubt that Banxico will turn to interest rate cuts until the turn of... 9th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly LatAm central banks kick off easing cycles with a bang The decisions in the past week by central banks in both Chile and Brazil to cut interest rates confirm that Latin America remains at the front of the pack in this global monetary cycle. We think Peru... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: comparisons with 2001/02 There are some unnerving similarities between Argentina’s current situation and that which preceded the 2001/02 crisis, including twin deficits, an overvalued exchange rate, and large external FX... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Argentina’s election – Back from the brink or into the abyss? 1691589600 The results of Argentina’s “open, simultaneous and obligatory primaries” (PASO) in 2019 – a dress rehearsal for the presidential election – triggered a 20% drop in the peso and a 40% plunge in the
Latin America Economics Focus Why Pemex will ultimately default The latest Pemex capital injection underscores that Mexico’s President López Obrador is more likely to lean towards providing a sovereign debt guarantee (either implicit or explicit) to deal with the... 1st August 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (June 2023) The slightly better-than-expected 0.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in June indicates that the sector grew a little more quickly in Q2 than it did in Q1. Even so, there’s nothing in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 0.9% q/q rise in Mexican GDP last quarter followed a strong Q1 and showed that Mexico’s economy was more resilient in the first half of the year than we’d expected. That said, we think that weaker... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
