Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts and the Gulf, Saudi labour, Morocco-IMF The surprise voluntary oil output cut by OPEC+ will directly shave 1-2%-pts off GDP growth in the region’s members this year, which has prompted us to revise down our 2023 GDP growth forecasts. That... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) March’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in Qatar and Saudi Arabia continued their good start to the year, whereas in Egypt the near-term pain from higher inflation and a weaker... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Central banks under the spotlight Next week’s MPC meeting in Egypt, coming at a time of soaring inflation and growing concerns over the commitment to policy reforms, will prove critical to restoring investors’ faith. Policymakers will... 23rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Door still open for fiscal loosening in the Gulf The slide in the price of oil since November has a little further to go in early 2023 and, while we think prices will recover later in the year, hydrocarbon revenues in the Gulf will be lower than... 21st December 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing. 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Qatar-Germany gas deal It seems likely that OPEC+ will opt to continue with October’s agreement to cut output quotas by 2mn bpd when the group meets on Sunday. That said, there are further signs that the group will become... 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
