Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Middle East & North Africa PMIs (May ‘24)

May’s batch of PMIs showed that private non-oil sectors have remained a point of strength in the Gulf economies at the mid-point of Q2 and this is likely to remain the case over the rest of this year...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024)

Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs

The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June...

9th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget

The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious...

18th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Middle East & North Africa PMIs (March 2024)

March's batch of PMIs showed that the Gulf economies continued to outperform those elsewhere, and have enjoyed a strong start to 2024.

3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but...

27th March 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost

The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this...

29th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt

January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic...

5th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

30th January 2024 · 1 min read