Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response S&P Global PMIs (Apr.) April’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a loss of momentum at the start of Q2 but continued to highlight the growing divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies as a result of the spillovers... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. Africa gas deals, Gulf tightening, Lebanon and the IMF Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas could benefit producers in North Africa – and Egypt in particular. Elsewhere, stronger inflation in MENA and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag but further highlighted that the spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. Emerging... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Curtains close on World Expo, Gulf support for Egypt The World Expo in Dubai closes its doors today and, while it has provided a near-term fillip to the economy, we are concerned that it will leave a legacy of overcapacity in key sectors that reignites... 31st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Regional divergence to widen on back of Ukraine war The spillovers from the war in Ukraine will further drive divergence in economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf economies stand to benefit as oil production is likely to be... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Fed tightening affect the Gulf? Central banks in the Gulf will have to follow the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates by virtue of their dollar pegs, which will weigh on domestic demand and recoveries in non-oil sectors... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of this year as governments tightened restrictions to tackle fresh Omicron-driven virus... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $90pb mean for the Gulf? With oil prices at current levels, nearly all of the Gulf economies are running twin budget and current account surpluses. We think that governments are more likely to save rather than spend this... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
