Africa Economics Update Signs of Nigeria’s recovery decelerating further The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economic rebound slowed further at the start of Q2, and we think that the recovery will remain lacklustre over the coming quarters. The weakness of the... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (Apr.) & Nigeria Inflation (May) South Africa’s activity data for April showed that flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts dealt a big blow to industrial sectors, while retail sales held up well. GDP probably still... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Uninspiring politics in Nigeria, SA’s external position Nigeria’s two main political parties have selected presidential contenders, setting the scene for a long campaign season ahead of elections in early 2023. Lots can happen until then, but with more... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 1.9% q/q in Q1 and, while the economy is unlikely to sustain such a robust performance over the coming quarters, we have revised up our GDP... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel levy in South Africa, primary season in Nigeria The extension of a fuel levy cut in South Africa will help to contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, but the extra fiscal costs come at the same time that it looks like the government will... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month reversed some of its losses in April, but the recovery in the manufacturing sector is on shaky footings given ongoing power cuts. And price... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s economy and central bank chief under pressure The rumours (subsequently denied) that Nigeria’s central bank governor had been sacked after delivering an interest rate hike raise further questions over the CBN’s independence. Even if the governor... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine inflames food insecurity in Africa The outsize role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan African economies and the tendency to rely on imported food products makes the region particularly vulnerable to the agricultural shock caused by the war... 25th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN finally steps up to curb inflation The Central Bank of Nigeria delivered a surprise 150bp interest rate hike, to 13.00%, today amid mounting inflation and balance of payments concerns. We expect rates to be raised by another 100bp, to... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Markets and monetary policy, mounting pressure on naira Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further, and has put currencies under pressure. Central banks appear to be... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawks’ majority in SARB to be short-lived Policymakers in South Africa upped the pace of tightening today, raising the repo rate by 50bp to 4.75%, as concerns about inflation (and inflation expectations in particular) have grown. We don’t... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 16.8% y/y last month and the headline rate is likely to rise further as spillovers from the war in Ukraine filter through. Pressure to tighten monetary policy is... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary politics in Nigeria, Ghana’s efforts to curb debt Nigerian President Buhari’s instruction that current government officials planning to run for the country’s highest office should resign will probably leave the central bank without a governor, but... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The plunge in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in April suggests that there was a large blow to activity from flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts. One consequence of this economic... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s privatisation push, Africa’s growing food insecurity Momentum appears to be building within South Africa’s ruling ANC party to shift towards a more private sector-led economic model. But given the party’s track record, we wouldn’t hold our breath... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Europe turns to Africa to replace Russian gas European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. While the region’s gas producers – like Angola and Nigeria – will gain from the recent surge in global energy... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
