Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in inflation in South Africa in March, to 5.9% y/y, will keep the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle going at the next meeting in May. But the weakness of core inflation supports our view that... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Floods hit SA recovery, Nigeria’s presidential race This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the news this week from Nigeria that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Cost of FX policies rising in Nigeria, fuel price cap in SA? Evidence is building that Nigeria’s unorthodox exchange rate policies are fuelling inflation and increasingly damaging economic activity. Meanwhile, the authorities in South Africa are reportedly... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) January’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s recovery gained ground following the Omicron virus wave. Taken together with more timely figures that point to a continued rebound in activity and... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Higher oil prices, SA’s terms of trade and fuel inflation The latest economic data suggest that South Africa’s recovery has gained ground, and some sectors will benefit from elevated metals prices caused by the war in Ukraine. But at a macro level, a... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa posted decent GDP growth of 1.2% q/q in Q4, shrugging off the Omicron virus wave. While elevated commodity prices will support the economy over the coming months, growth is likely to slow... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Producers riding oil high? A win for SA public finances Oil prices have surged this week, but Africa’s main oil exporters – Nigeria and Angola – are unlikely to reap the full benefits due to persistent oil output problems and the mounting costs of fuel... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in February suggests that the rebound in the sector picked up pace. But headwinds facing the industry and the wider economy mean this strength is unlikely... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis raises inflation and debt risks The Russia-Ukraine crisis will improve the terms of trade of some African oil producers like Angola and Nigeria. But it will add to inflation pressures across the region. And in the meantime, investor... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA budget shows healthier public finances… for now Today’s budget showed that South Africa’s public finances are in a better-than-expected shape but the path to stabilise the debt ratio remains narrow. Mounting pressures to provide more fiscal support... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget to sow seeds of fiscal slippage South Africa’s upcoming budget speech will probably contain better-than-projected fiscal results, allowing the finance minister to extend temporary spending measures without undermining near-term... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s GDP growth was unchanged at 4.0% y/y in Q4 as a slightly smaller drag from the oil sector was offset by a weaker performance in the non-oil economy. But we think that growth will drop back... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) December’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s economy held up well in the face of the Omicron virus wave. GDP probably expanded by around 0.9% q/q in Q4, implying growth of 4.6% over 2021 as... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 5.7% y/y in January, and with soft core inflation and a bumpy economic recovery, the monetary tightening cycle is likely to be more gradual than... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in Nigeria was unchanged at 15.6% y/y in January and the headline rate will probably soften only gradually. At this point, however, policymakers are unlikely to hike interest rates in... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
