Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the stronger-than-expected pace of third-quarter GDP growth because it mainly reflects a downward revision to GDP in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the latest GDP... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth picking up The sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the October Labour Force Survey caught the headlines, but the more important development was the sharp rise in fixed-weight average hourly earnings. Based... 23rd November 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices surge, floods devastate BC The renewed surge in house prices could persuade the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than we forecast, although the hit to activity from the devasting floods in BC this week reduces the... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation unlikely to catch up with the US Price inflation in Canada and the US followed a similar trend in the 2010s, but we think the pandemic marked a turning point, and expect the former to remain lower than the latter. 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation rose to an 18-year high of 4.7% in October but, as this was driven primarily by higher energy prices and was in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, it is unlikely to shift the timing of... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The renewed closures of auto plants weighed heavily on manufacturing sales in September. While many factories re-opened again this month, there is still a chance that overall manufacturing sales... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Upside risks to October inflation lower than in the US The upside surprise to consumer price inflation in the US in October suggests there are also further upside risks in Canada, although the data next week are unlikely to show as large an increase in... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update “Excess” savings unlikely to be a game-changer We are doubtful that a significant share of households’ “excess” savings will be spent. Even if we are wrong, there are several other downside risks to the consensus forecasts for consumption growth... 11th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth is stronger than it seems The “fixed-weight” average hourly earnings series that the Bank of Canada is following appear to be understating wage growth, but should provide a more accurate picture over the rest of the year. 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Market pricing too aggressive despite hawkish Bank Following the Bank of Canada’s hawkish message this week there is a risk that it raises interest rates sooner than we anticipate. Nevertheless, we continue to doubt that the Bank will hike by as much... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP growth was weaker than expected in August and the preliminary estimate implies the economy stagnated last month. With third-quarter growth seemingly much weaker than the Bank’s latest forecasts... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank ends QE and pulls forward guidance on first hike The Bank of Canada called time on its QE program today and indicated that it could raise interest rates as soon as the second quarter of next year. The Bank’s GDP forecasts still look too upbeat to us... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to higher wage inflation Wage growth remained moderate over the summer but, with labour shortages intensifying, it seems likely to accelerate sharply soon. The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS)... 26th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth to disappoint as CRB ends The winding down of government support to households and firms means the economy faces a large fiscal contraction this quarter, which we think will cause GDP growth to disappoint. 22nd October 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales increased markedly in August, as expected, but they appear to have fallen sharply in September and the expiry of the CRB presents a downside risk to spending over the rest of the year. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
