China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The January trade data were much stronger than anticipated but seasonal volatility caused by annual shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year make it difficult to get a good grip on underlying trends... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gets more realistic by taking a neutral stance We think the explicit neutral stance adopted by the RBNZ in today’s policy meeting is appropriate as we suspect that the economy will not gain enough momentum to support interest rate hikes until 2021... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Labour Market (Jan.) January data suggest that a sharp minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year weighed on hiring, and is likely to depress job creation throughout 2019. The poor health of the labour market is set... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the official manufacturing PMI didn’t weaken any further in January, it still suggests that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The jump in industrial production in the fourth quarter points to a strong rebound in GDP. But the worsening of the business surveys suggests that a renewed slowdown at the start of this year is... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut interest rates to 1% The RBA will probably reduce its GDP growth forecasts at next week’s meeting but should still signal that the next move in rates will be up. Our more pessimistic outlook for economic activity, the... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) Inflation remained below the lower end of the RBA’s target range in the fourth quarter and we think it won’t rise within the target band any time soon. And if GDP growth slows as sharply as we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Support for first-time home buyers may come too late A renewed increase in public support for first-time home buyers would probably result in a rebound in home sales and house prices. But with federal elections due by May, any step-up in government... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but the slightly more dovish statement supports our view that rate cuts will creep onto its agenda later this year. Whereas the... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates this year Today’s decision from the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep rates on hold, and the downgrade in its forecasts, adds weight to our view that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2019. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Combined with the recent fall in Reuters’ manufacturing Tankan, the slump in the manufacturing PMI in January suggests that the growth outlook for Japan has deteriorated. While we still expect... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) GDP growth in the Philippines was virtually unchanged in Q4 and we expect it to settle at around 6.0% in 2019, falling short of both government targets and the consensus view. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The decent rise in employment in December shows that the housing downturn isn’t having a major impact on the labour market yet. But we expect domestic demand to slow sharply this year so jobs growth... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
