Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) There were few positives in the February PMIs, with the headline readings pointing to another broad-based deterioration in regional manufacturing conditions. The chances of an improvement in the near... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modi government likely to continue with FDI reform Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift in... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI surged to a 14-month high in February and once again bucked the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain bright over the near term. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices in the eight capital cities have now fallen 8.9% from their peak making the current downturn the largest in Australia’s modern history, and we expect prices to fall by at least another 6%... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Capital Spending (Q4) The unemployment rate edged up in January and with GDP growth set to remain soft, we think it will creep higher next year. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Shift in RBA’s stance increases chances of rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5th March. While the Bank should reiterate its view that inflationary... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly MPC minutes, farmer handouts, Kashmir The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s 7 th February policy meeting – in which rates were cut – reveal a significant difference of opinion between MPC members on the outlook for core inflation. We share... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drag from slumping fresh food inflation will subside soon but headline inflation will still hover around 0.5% over the coming months. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The continued sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in February adds to the evidence that Japan’s economy is losing steam rapidly and suggests that GDP growth will remain weak for now. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Dodgy data, slumping Sensex Recent developments have again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to any... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The jump in bank lending last month was mostly seasonal. But after months of declines, broad credit growth did edge up in January, hinting that monetary easing may be starting to gain more traction. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian investment to fall, RBNZ tweaks stance Weak business sentiment in Australia is likely to be another drag on private investment in 2019. And given the role the housing downturn is playing in sentiment, we expect things to get worse before... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Below-consensus inflation in January suggests that demand remained sluggish at the start of the year. Factory gate prices are now falling, which is likely to feed through to weaker profit growth among... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The drop in headline wholesale price inflation in January was broad based, but underlying inflation is likely to rise again before long. This underlines why we think the RBI’s recent rate cut, as well... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
