India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q1) The softening in underlying inflation puts increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. We still expect the RBA to cut rates in August but the risks of an earlier cut have increased. 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittances to remain a key source of funding Remittances from abroad are an important source of external funding for India and were equivalent to almost 3% of GDP in 2018. That was more than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Although there are... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Is growth bottoming out in New Zealand? Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) has picked up in early 2019, which suggests GDP growth may be bottoming out. That said, economic activity is likely to remain subdued over 2019 as business... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Technology slump bottoms out, Philippines budget A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Export strength unlikely to last Indian goods exports grew strongly in March, bucking the trend across most of Asia. But this strength is unlikely to last given a weakening of global demand and domestic capacity constraints. 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Mobile tariff cuts add to drag on inflation Inflation will probably turn negative yet again over coming months once we strip out of the impact of October’s sales tax hike. However, that partly reflects one-off price cuts that have been flagged... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea’s next move to be a cut The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But, while it sounded less upbeat on the economy, we still think the BoK is too optimistic on the outlook for growth. With growth... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The solid employment gain in March doesn’t resolve the tension between weak activity and healthy labour market data. Our view is that the drag from the housing downturn will eventually win the upper... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) China’s economy stabilised in Q1 thanks to a marked improvement in activity last month. Admittedly, the latest surge in industrial production is hard to take at face value and is likely to be... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) The renewed trade deficit in March is not an area of immediate concern and we think that net trade may have actually boosted GDP growth in Q1. The bigger picture, however, remains unchanged – the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices. (Q1) The easing in headline inflation in Q1 increases the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at their next meeting in May. And with weak growth set to keep a lid on inflation, we think they will cut... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no cause for alarm India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in March but, with oil prices likely to fall, we think the deficit will remain contained over the coming months. In turn, that should help to keep... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) The rebound in March’s wholesale price inflation is unlikely to prevent the RBI from cutting rates at its next policy meeting in June. But with underlying inflation set to rise further, there is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Stronger-than-anticipated exports hint at an uptick in foreign demand but disappointing imports suggest that domestic demand may not be holding up as well as hoped. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
