Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget surplus, looser lending restrictions The rapid decline in the budget deficit suggests that the Government may announce higher spending or tax cuts in next year’s Budget. And Labor has pledged to eliminate a number of tax privileges if it... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The fall in private capital expenditure wasn’t as bad as the headline suggests but a slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter will be hard to avoid. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in consumer spending in October suggests that private consumption returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That means that the contraction in GDP in the third quarter was just a blip. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Looser LTV constraints won’t reignite housing market The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to ease mortgage lending restrictions probably won’t result in a major pick-up in lending and home sales. And with house prices looking stretched relative to... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch On hold for now, but tightening cycle not over yet The recent drop in headline inflation, coupled with the sharp fall in global oil prices, should be enough to ensure that the RBI keeps policy rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese investment could make problems worse By seeking closer ties and increased investment from China, President Duterte of the Philippines risks repeating the mistakes made by other countries in the region. With the current account deficit... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q3 GDP showed that the economy cooled off in Q3, and with external demand set to weaken and interest rates rising, growth is likely to stay weak over the next... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline inflation in October reflected a boost from fresh food and energy prices that won’t last. However, we expect overall inflation to settle around 1% over coming months as price... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA can hike while Fed cuts Australia’s economy has become less sensitive to conditions in the US as their trade links have diminished. The upshot is that the RBA should be able to hike interest rates in 2020 even if our... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand slowed sharply in Q3, and is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to a combination of weaker external demand and a faltering tourism sector. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
