Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) While the trade deficit narrowed in April as exports have started to rebound, we think that the slump in import volumes in the first quarter will reverse before long. The upshot is that we expect net... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Thailand slowed to a four-year low in the first quarter of the year, and with exports set to remain weak, we expect growth to stay subdued. The uncertain political situation is the main... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA won’t launch QE anytime soon The RBA has made it clear that quantitative easing is its preferred tool once interest rates reach the effective lower bound. But we suspect that the Bank would first cut interest rates from their... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will not wait much longer before cutting rates Employment growth has picked up over the last couple of months, but with the labour force expanding even faster the unemployment rate has started to rise. With GDP growth below potential and... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax hike delay & trade war woes The government downgraded its assessment of economic conditions this week, prompting renewed speculation that the sales tax hike scheduled for 1 st October will be delayed yet again. However, with the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q1) The stagnation in wage growth in the first quarter underlines that the tighter labour market isn’t boosting cost pressures and supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth not as weak as official data suggest The government admitted in January that sampling errors had resulted in wage growth being overstated in 2018. Unfortunately, the government has added to concerns over the accuracy of the wage data by... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong credit growth no reason to cheer Strong business credit growth could be a sign that firms are becoming more upbeat about the outlook for business investment. In reality though, the data tend to lag actual investment spending and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The slowdown in credit growth last month underlines the need for further monetary policy easing in order to keep credit expanding fast enough to provide a floor to economic growth. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Q1’s slump in GDP growth should be temporary, as it was mainly driven by budget delays. But hopes for a sustained rebound are likely to be disappointed. A tough external environment and the lagged... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Mar.) March’s activity data were weak and suggests that the contraction in Q1 GDP will be sharper than what we initially expected. And although the jump in the unemployment rate in March merely reversed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in Korea’s economy in Q1, which saw GDP fall by 0.3% q/q, will probably mark a trough. But with headwinds to growth set to remain, a strong rebound is unlikely. In light of today’s... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
