Julie Nicol

Julie Nicol is the Office Administrator in Singapore, working closely with the London office as well as providing support to the local sales team.

Japan Data Response

External Trade (Nov.)

The slump in export values in November suggests that growth in export volumes will continue to fall short of growth in import volumes in the fourth quarter. And the recent weakening in external demand...

19th December 2018 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Trade Concessions, Reform and Opening Up 2.0?

China resumed purchases of US soybeans this week and pledged to cut auto tariffs. But to clinch a lasting trade deal, it will need to convince the US that it is moving ahead with long-promised...

14th December 2018 1 min read

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.)

November’s fall in buyer enquiries and sales instructions is consistent with our view that there will be no revival in the housing market next year. Indeed, with the pipeline of housing sales...

13th December 2018 1 min read

India Economics Update

RBI governor’s resignation a blow to policy credibility

The resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel signals that the government has come out on top in its dispute with the central bank, but at the cost of undermining the RBI’s credibility and its inflation...

11th December 2018 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2018)

The effects of August’s currency crisis caused Turkey’s economy to contract in Q3 and more timely evidence suggests that the downturn deepened in Q4. Our forecast that GDP will fall by 0.5% over 2019...

10th December 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade & Inflation (Nov.)

Export growth slowed last month but this reflects unflattering base effects and softer global growth rather than US tariffs. A bigger concern is the sharp drop in import growth which, coupled with...

10th December 2018 1 min read

India Economics Update

Oil price drop to strengthen current account position

India’s current account deficit widened in Q3 but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices having dropped sharply since then, the deficit will remain...

10th December 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Flatter US yield curve no big deal for Australia

While the flattening of the US yield curve suggests that the US economy is likely to slow soon, it doesn’t tell us much about developments in Australia. And while we expect Australia’s yield curve to...

10th December 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

GDP (Q3 Revised)

While the economy contracted even more than most had anticipated in the third quarter, we expect GDP growth to return to trend next year.

10th December 2018 1 min read

Asia Data Response

Philippines CPI (Nov.)

Consumer price inflation in the Philippines fell in November, and looks set to decline further over the coming months due to a combination of lower food and oil prices. If inflation falls back as we...

5th December 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

GDP (Q3)

It would be tempting to blame the slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter on temporary factors. But we believe that the full effects of falling house prices and tighter credit conditions haven’t...

5th December 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Cautious RBA may only hike rates in late-2020

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a little more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th month. That supports our view that rates will not rise until late in 2020...

4th December 2018 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The greater-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 21.6% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank pushes ahead with an interest cut in the coming months.

3rd December 2018 1 min read

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

India’s manufacturing PMI jumped again in November, defying the drop in the PMI readings across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term.

3rd December 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat...

3rd December 2018 1 min read

Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the...

3rd December 2018 1 min read