Julie Nicol

Julie Nicol is the Office Administrator in Singapore, working closely with the London office as well as providing support to the local sales team.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Royal Commission will add to slowing credit growth

The final report by the Royal Commission may add to the changes in bank behaviour that are already underway. However, the report did not recommend much that is likely to cause an upheaval for the...

4th February 2019 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.)

The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that...

4th February 2019 1 min read

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)

India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in January, defying the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term.

1st February 2019 1 min read

RBI Watch

New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening

We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of...

30th January 2019 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Retail Sales (Dec.)

The strong rise in December’s retail sales values suggests that private consumption growth in the fourth quarter could slightly exceed our expectations. And as consumers bring forward spending ahead...

30th January 2019 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates

Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from...

18th January 2019 1 min read

Bank of Japan Watch

Tightening remains a distant prospect

The Bank is getting a bit more concerned about the impact of prolonged monetary easing on financial stability. But with economic activity and inflation set to fall short of its forecasts yet again...

16th January 2019 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Machinery Orders (Nov.)

The stagnation in machinery orders in November suggests that business investment wasn’t the main driver of the likely rebound in Q4 GDP. But we still expect capital spending to rise at a strong pace...

16th January 2019 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Spending boost from lower petrol prices won’t last

The recent declines in petrol prices may boost consumer spending by around 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2019. But we suspect that this impact won’t be enough to prevent consumption...

9th January 2019 1 min read

Japan Economic Outlook

Full employment not good enough for BoJ

The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax...

9th January 2019 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.)

The pick-up in wage growth in November has probably further to run as the unemployment rate declines ahead of the sales tax hike. But wages may not rise fast enough to meet the BoJ’s 2% inflation...

9th January 2019 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: Minimum wage hike to weigh on growth

A further sharp rise in the minimum wage in Korea at the start of this month is likely to drag heavily on the labour market again this year, further holding back employment growth and household...

8th January 2019 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Nov.)

The trade surplus will probably rebound in December but will expect net trade will make a negative contribution to Q4 GDP growth.

8th January 2019 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australian dollar set to weaken further

We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk...

4th January 2019 1 min read

India Economics Weekly

Election measures raise long-term risks

The drumbeat of pre-election giveaways continues at the state level in the form of loan waivers and from the national government. These steps may be effective politically but they risk eroding...

4th January 2019 1 min read

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)

India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in December, but the reading still indicates that the sector was performing well at the end of 2018. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly...

2nd January 2019 1 min read