Julie Nicol

Julie Nicol is the Office Administrator in Singapore, working closely with the London office as well as providing support to the local sales team.

Japan Chart Pack

Spending boost from sales tax hike to remain muted

Private consumption surged ahead of the last two sales tax hikes as households brought forward spending but collapsed as soon as the tax had been raised. The data thus far suggest that consumers have...

22nd April 2019 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Seasonality, tax cuts distort the industrial output data

Among the better-than-expected data published this week, industrial output growth stood out as especially strong after it jumped by the most since March 2009. But there are reasons to think that...

18th April 2019 1 min read

Bank of Japan Watch

Bank to remain on the side lines

While the tone of the incoming data has been a little more positive since the March meeting, we still expect GDP growth to slow sharply this year. However, many on the Board remain concerned about the...

17th April 2019 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Slower growth after the election

Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years.

15th April 2019 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Childcare boost & trade negotiations

The introduction of free childcare for children aged three to five and for those below three years of age from low-income families should encourage even more women to join the workforce. Improved...

12th April 2019 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Trade frictions not a major risk to economy

China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small...

12th April 2019 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Singapore: weak growth to prompt loosening from MAS

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its policy settings unchanged, but given the worsening outlook for the economy, we think it will loosen policy at its next meeting in October.

12th April 2019 1 min read

India Economics Update

Inflation Monitor (Mar.)

Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in March, even if, as we suspect, it rose slightly as food inflation continues to pick up. The RBI will almost certainly follow up its cumulative 50bp of...

8th April 2019 1 min read

India Economics Weekly

Sensex rally won’t last

Indian equities scaled new highs this week, with the Sensex surpassing 39,000 for the first time on Tuesday. But we doubt that the recent rally will be sustained. From a valuations perspective, Indian...

5th April 2019 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Capacity constraints set to loosen again soon

The Bank of Japan’s claims that capacity shortages were the most pronounced since the early 1990s last year jar with the slowdown in economic activity and the fact that underlying inflation remains...

5th April 2019 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales & International Trade (Feb.)

The strong 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales in February suggests that consumption growth may not have declined further in Q1, but we think the housing downturn will mean growth remains subdued in 2019...

3rd April 2019 1 min read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The slight pick-up in Swiss inflation in March does not change our view that the headline rate will fall back into negative territory in mid-2019 and that core price pressures will remain extremely...

2nd April 2019 1 min read

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)

India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in March, but this shouldn’t raise any alarms. After all, the reading hit a 14-month high in February and overall, the recent PMIs suggest that the manufacturing...

2nd April 2019 1 min read

Asia Data Response

Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)

PMIs rose across much of Emerging Asia last month. But it’s too soon to call a turning point. The PMIs for the region’s biggest manufacturing sectors still point to a contraction in output, while...

1st April 2019 1 min read

China Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)

The strength of the latest survey data suggests that growth in China may already be bottoming out. But there are still reasons to be cautious about the near-term outlook.

1st April 2019 1 min read

India Economics Update

Current account deficit to remain in check

India’s current account deficit widened at the end of 2018 but this shouldn’t reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices likely to fall, the deficit will remain at a comfortable...

1st April 2019 1 min read