Julie Nicol

Julie Nicol is the Office Administrator in Singapore, working closely with the London office as well as providing support to the local sales team.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Full employment has not been achieved

Even though the unemployment rate has fallen to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 5.0% estimate of the natural rate, the RBA will still want to see signs of much faster wage growth before it hikes...

19th October 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Sep.)

While underlying inflation didn’t rise any further in September, we think it will strengthen as firms pass on higher labour costs and domestic demand strengthens ahead of the tax hike. However...

19th October 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Labour Market (Sep.)

Whether or not the decline in the unemployment rate in September to the RBA’s estimate of the natural rate of 5.0% prompts the Bank to raise interest rates sooner depends on what happens to wage...

18th October 2018 1 min read

Japan Data Response

External Trade (Sep.)

Net exports probably remained a drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. It now looks likely that economic activity came to a standstill in Q3.

18th October 2018 1 min read

India Economics Update

Trade deficit will continue to moderate

The narrowing in India’s merchandise trade deficit in September should help to temper some of the concerns that have recently been building over the external position. And looking ahead, we think that...

16th October 2018 1 min read

China Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)

Policymakers are likely to look through the latest pick-up in consumer price inflation and focus instead on evidence of cooling economic momentum, including slower core inflation and weaker factory...

16th October 2018 1 min read

India Data Response

Wholesale Prices (Sep.)

The rise in wholesale price inflation in September was due in large part due to a significant rebound in food inflation. But core inflation also remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s...

15th October 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Revisiting the fallout from the US-China trade war

Even though Australia is strongly dependent on the health of China’s economy, it won’t suffer much from China’s escalating trade conflict with the US. If anything, in the near-term it will benefit...

15th October 2018 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Back down to earth in Q3

Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains...

15th October 2018 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Equities have further to fall, lacklustre “Golden Week”

The stock market sell-off this week is a reminder that Chinese equities won’t be immune if, as we expect, the S&P 500 falls sharply next year. Meanwhile, data on tourism and retail spending during the...

12th October 2018 1 min read

India Economics Weekly

State elections come into focus

The Electoral Commission confirmed this week that five state elections will take place before the end of 2018. As ever, these will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and...

12th October 2018 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Banks still struggling, another look at Japan’s debts

The government has indicated that it will be more lenient in applying antimonopoly legislation when assessing regional bank mergers. That should pave the way for a further consolidation of...

12th October 2018 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Further policy tightening in Singapore unlikely

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today increased the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a tightening of its policy stance. But with growth...

12th October 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Falling equities, rising petrol, climbing borrowing costs

The recent plunge in equity prices, surge in petrol prices and rise in borrowing costs all triggered by developments overseas won’t hurt the Australian economy much. But they do add to other headwinds...

12th October 2018 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Rapid growth to continue for a while yet

GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal...

11th October 2018 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Missing the global tightening cycle

Our forecasts suggest that by the time the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand get round to raising interest rates from record lows, the US Fed will already be cutting them. We think that a...

10th October 2018 1 min read