Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to acknowledge reality in the new year The Bank of Canada is clinging on to the idea that restrictive policy is still needed to get inflation back to 2%. Nonetheless, with core inflation pressures muted, GDP and house prices falling, and... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon With markets already convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on any clues as to how soon and how far rates will be cut. We suspect officials... 6th December 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Nov. 2023) Falling mortgage rates sparked a modest uptick in mortgage applications for home purchase in November. Recent falls in Treasury yields mean further falls in mortgage rates are imminent, so the trough... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show growing labour market slack November JOLTS data suggest that labour market slack is growing, even as payroll growth remains relatively resilient. With signs pointing to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead, the Fed can be... 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Little relief in sight for first-time buyers First-time buyer (FTB) loan originations have been weak for over a year now. That’s mainly down to higher mortgage rates which have made buying too expensive for many younger adults. And as we think... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23) All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go... 4th December 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Falling Treasury yields may provide more respite for REITs Although we expect US equity office REITs to benefit further from falling long-dated Treasury yields, we continue to think that their long-run prospects are blighted by a structural reduction in... 4th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The Treasury yield curve could “disinvert” next year We expect the Treasury yield curve to “disinvert” in 2024, as we think the Fed will cut rates by more than investors expect and term premia will remain at least as high as they are now. 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Could an AI boom transform the budget outlook? With the budget deficit rebounding over the last year and Congress characterised by partisan dysfunction, the odds of a full-blown fiscal crisis developing over the next decade are rising. The US... 4th December 2023 · 20 mins read
