US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the surge in CPI rent inflation It is no secret that strong immigration is pushing up rents but, as rent growth for new tenancies was little changed last year, this does not fully explain the surge in CPI rent inflation. The CPI... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Dec. 2023) Mortgage rates dropping below 7% were the catalyst for a marked uptick in mortgage applications for home purchase in December. 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: December CPI and the Fed’s 2024 path back to its 2% inflation target 1704985200 Will inflation continue its retreat into 2024? When will the Fed start easing policy, and by how much will it cut rates over the coming year?
Event Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls 1704904200 We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth reliant on non-cyclical sectors After the near 200,000 gain in payroll employment in November, which included the return of 47,000 workers who had been on strike, we expect a more muted 150,000 increase in December. We also... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Austin and Miami tumble down the apartment rankings We expect apartment markets to perform poorly over the next two years, with all our 17 metros seeing capital values lower at the end of 2025 than they are now. However, there will be substantial... 2nd January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Where will new apartment supply fall fastest? We expect the sharpest fall in apartment completions in 2025-26 in Boston, Denver, NYC and Seattle. Those cities will also be joined by Sunbelt markets where oversupply is already denting rents... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rapid immigration making the Bank’s job harder Data this week showed that the population jumped by 430,000 in the third quarter alone, almost as much as the official full-year permanent resident target of 465,000. Nonetheless, the November CPI... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hawks can’t compete with plunging inflation This week saw a renewed attempt from some Fed officials to push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts but, with core PCE inflation running at an annualised pace of below 2% over the... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The confirmation that core PCE prices rose by just 0.06% m/m in November means that, over the past six months, core inflation has been running at an annualised pace of just 1.9%. Adding in the further... 22nd December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook West coast markets facing another beating in 2024 The performance of the 17 office markets we forecast will continue to be driven by structural factors over the next couple of years. That points to further weakness in the six major markets, where... 20th December 2023 · 7 mins read
