US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2023) Existing home sales recovered somewhat in November from the 13-year low reached in October, as falling mortgage rates brought more buyers and sellers into the market. That chimes with the pickup in... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US economy unlikely to burst another bubble in equities Although the economic backdrop is likely to be less favourable for the stock market in the US over the next two years than it was in second half of the 1990s, we doubt this will prevent a similar... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Nov. 2023) The extreme lack of existing inventory on the market continued to support newbuild demand and construction activity in November, as single-family starts jumped to an 18-month high. The rise is at odds... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in core inflation pressures in November was largely due to a jump in travel tour prices, which is likely to be quickly reversed. Nonetheless, by highlighting the continued... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov) Net lending on commercial real estate by banks resurged in November, despite signs from other data that lenders would continue to pull back from real estate lending. That said, the $4.4bn of net... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt service ratio will continue to rise Household net worth fell in the third quarter, although the recent resurgence in bond and equity prices means that should soon be reversed. It is too soon to sound the all-clear for households’... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec.) November was a weak month all round for housing, with prices falling at a faster pace and starts plunging. Lenders are already cutting mortgage rates in response to the recent drop in bond yields... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed & markets catching up with inflation reality The Fed’s embrace of interest rate cuts next year is understandable when the latest data suggest that core PCE inflation is rapidly closing in on the 2% target. 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit value falls in 2024 Persistent weak growth and elevated (albeit soon-to-be falling) interest rates continue to spell trouble for real estate values. We see NOI growth softening further over the next year as the... 15th December 2023 · 22 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Mission Accomplished? While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rebound in retail sales in November provides further illustration that the continued rapid decline in inflation is not coming at the cost of significantly weaker economic growth. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
