China Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets still under strain Corporate bond defaults have jumped recently and the loss-making share of industrial firms has risen to its highest in nearly a decade. This may not trigger an immediate crisis but it is a reminder... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts feed through to lower bank rates The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) reductions confirm that banks are lowering lending rates on new loans in response to the recent cuts to the PBOC’s lending facilities. And policymakers’ willingness to... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Activity and spending slowed across the board last month, more than reversing the uptick at the end of Q3. With further weakness on the horizon, we think additional policy stimulus is due before long. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong’s special status matter? If Hong Kong’s special treatment under US law were revoked, the city would lose access to sensitive US technology and face an increased threat of US tariffs. The short-term economic damage would be... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Monetary easing is failing to lift bank loan growth, while fiscal constraints are weighing on broader credit expansion. This should increase pressure on the PBOC to loosen policy more decisively. 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month as renminbi depreciation pressure subsided. This points to a decline in... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC turning more proactive After keeping interbank rates broadly stable for most of this year, the People’s Bank (PBOC) is starting to take more direct steps to push down borrowing costs. We think this could mark the beginning... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Business environment improves, net state assets rise Chinese authorities this week announced new regulations that promise to cut red tape and level the playing field for different types of firms from 1 st January. But the policies are at odds with the... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Uptick in industry nudges up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up at the end of last quarter due to a rebound in industrial activity. But the prop from industry should be short-lived, and with the recent... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Construction strength offset by industry weakness The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows that a slowdown in industry overshadowed strength in the construction sector. The headwinds to the construction sector should only... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Easing yet to come The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, was unchanged in October. This will only increase pressure on the PBOC to ease funding costs for... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth failed to pick up in September despite recent policy easing. And while we expect policymakers to take more aggressive action before long, the impact of any easing on credit growth and... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
