China Economics Update Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable Commercial banks cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to moves by the People's Bank earlier in the month to lower their funding costs. While more easing is likely in the coming weeks, this... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment The vast majority of firms in China have enough funds to keep paying their creditors and employees for at least a couple of months amid the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But a... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economy still on hold three weeks after Lunar NY Two weeks after China was originally due to return to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, economic activity remains extremely subdued. There are some signs that popular concerns about the outbreak... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Coronavirus spread, tariff rollbacks The next few days will be crucial in determining whether efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus within China have worked and whether workplaces across the country will be allowed to reopen... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The PBOC doesn’t appear to have deployed its FX reserves last month to limit renminbi depreciation triggered by the coronavirus outbreak. But there are signs that it has intervened in other ways. 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) While the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down last month, the survey was conducted too early to tell us much about the extent of the economic damage from the Coronavirus outbreak. The February survey... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) The official PMIs show that manufacturing activity weakened, and non-manufacturing strengthened, in the lead-up to the Coronavirus outbreak. The following months’ PMIs will give insight into how... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Coronavirus toll mounting The number of deaths inside China attributed to the new coronavirus is now on course to exceed those from SARS by early next week. The measures taken by the government and the public to limit... 30th January 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation to drop back sharply, bond rally not over While the spike in oil prices following the killing of Iranian General Soleimani proved short-lived, oil prices still look set to rise this year on the back of a recovery in demand. But the impact of... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month on the back of easing trade tensions. With outflows moderating – and... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hukou reforms & property, RRR cut, loan repricing The interest rates on virtually all outstanding loans issued by China’s banks will be renegotiated over the next few months as the PBOC implements the most consequential phase of its efforts to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trade headwinds easing The contraction in EM export growth deepened in October and November but should ease in the next few months as the drags from lower commodity prices and a shift in the Asian electronics cycle fade... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month, despite recent monetary loosening by the People’s Bank. This suggests that more aggressive action will be needed to shore up growth. 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
