China Chart Pack Industrial restart feeding inventories Output from China’s industrial sector rebounded in March, as the government encouraged firms to re-open. But revenues remained much weaker, signalling that demand remained depressed. Inventories... 27th April 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly True unemployment at least double official figure The leadership has elevated “ensuring employment” to the top of its list of priorities. Unemployment is still low officially but the true rate is probably double the official figure. 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Downturn pushing China towards zero lower bound The decline in China’s Q1 GDP made history but was not a big surprise. The pace of contraction looks set to ease this quarter but with external headwinds intensifying and the labour market in a... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years China’s release next week of data for Q1 GDP will be perhaps the most remarkable of modern history. The statistics office often stands accused of smoothing fluctuations in GDP but we think it is... 9th April 2020 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened last month from February’s abysmal levels and suggests that the contraction in activity has already bottomed out. But weak foreign demand and labour market... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Opening up, shutting down, infection data doubts China has been relaxing some of its last controls on domestic movement this week while also pulling down the shutters on arrivals from abroad. That highlights how the epicentre of the coronavirus... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks Recent monetary easing has squeezed bank margins, causing concern among policymakers. The People’s Bank has hinted that, in order to take some pressure off the banks and give them room to lower... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth was stable last month despite the slump in economic activity. In most countries, credit growth would slow sharply in response to a shock such as the coronavirus, as households defer... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bond yields at decade lows, RMB defies growth slump China’s economy is on a slow march back to normality. In coming days, the trade, credit and inflation data will shine new light on the disruption of recent weeks. In financial markets, rising... 6th March 2020 · 8 mins read
China Chart Pack Most factories now open but production still subdued Chinese factories were slow to reopen even after the extended Lunar New Year holiday came to end. One week after most of the country officially went back to work on 10th February, more than half of... 28th February 2020 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount New data this week on electricity usage in one of China’s largest provinces suggest that activity in the construction, wholesale and retail, and industrial sectors has been running at half the usual... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Strong government bond issuance left growth in outstanding broad credit unchanged last month, though weaker corporate borrowing suggests that the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus was starting to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
