Capital Daily Markets may force the Fed’s hand The S&P 500’s 14% plunge this week is the fastest such correction on record; the VIX index is now at its highest level since the euro-zone crisis in 2012; and the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen... 28th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Markets to remain concerned about China’s demand Industrial commodity prices trod water this week as investors struggled to assess the extent of the economic fallout from COVID-19. That said, the lingering sense of uncertainty put wind in the sails... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Sense of calm may not last The prices of most industrial commodity prices rose this week on hopes that the coronavirus is near to its peak and that economic activity in Asia will start to pick up soon. The announcement of... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus to delay the global recovery The new coronavirus has reshaped the global economic outlook for at least the next couple of quarters. From what data are available, it looks like the hit has been big enough for global GDP to... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Labour market could matter more for US equities later this year January’s employment report has unusually taken a back seat in markets today, as the coronavirus outbreak still dominates the headlines. However, that might not last – the health of the US labour... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Virus to remain the main driver of prices Having plunged a week earlier, commodity prices stabilised a little towards the end of this week. That said, until we have a clearer steer on the scale and duration of the coronavirus, it is difficult... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coronavirus continues to plague commodities Commodity prices lost ground last week, as the rapid spread of the Wuhan coronavirus has dented China’s near-term growth prospects. Indeed, both oil and base metals prices have fallen 10% from their... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily UK markets have scope to rally after Brexit As the clock ticks down towards Brexit, it is worth taking stock of where the many twists and turns over the past four years have left UK financial markets. Our view is that, having fallen a long way... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Path towards tighter BoE policy, and higher Gilt yields, is clearer The Bank of England left rates unchanged today, and we think that it will continue to keep policy on hold in 2020, before hiking in 2021. As such, we expect the 10-year UK government bond (Gilt) yield... 30th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coronavirus highlights fragility of price recovery Fears that the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China could dent demand hit industrial commodity prices hard this week, erasing almost all year-to-date gains. We don’t pretend to be experts on public... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wait and see … The lukewarm market reaction to the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that an agreement had already been priced by commodities markets. For our part... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth may have troughed Our estimates of Q4 GDP based on national monthly data and surveys imply that global growth slowed from 3.1% to about 2.6% in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms. But we suspect that this will prove... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily EM equities’ underperformance likely to slow in 2020 EM equities have managed to keep pace with US equities since late 2019 after a long period of underperformance (see Chart 1), as global economic data have stabilised and the US and China struck a... 9th January 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities to make up lost ground The post-election jump in UK equities could just be the start of a sustained rally. Concerns Brexit and higher taxes under a Labour government mean that UK equity indices have underperformed over the... 17th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rally in the Swedish krona is unlikely to last What a difference a few months make; from being the worst performing G10 currency by some margin between the start of the year and late October, the Swedish krona has risen by about 3% against the... 16th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic activity still losing momentum Hopes that the euro-zone is turning a corner look premature. The latest activity data have been disappointing, with retail sales falling in October and national data pointing to another decline in... 10th December 2019 · 11 mins read
