UK Economics Chart Pack Election to mark a turning point for the economy The anticipation of next week’s election delivering a substantial majority for the Conservative Party and leading to a Brexit deal has already triggered a turning point in the financial markets, with... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The election on 12th December is likely to mark the beginning of a new phase for the UK economy, determining not only the type of Brexit (or if Brexit happens at all) but also the size and shape of... 26th November 2019 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Swiss deflation is here to stay Inflation in Switzerland fell below zero for the first time in nearly three years in October and business surveys suggest that it will remain in negative territory until at least early 2020. (See... 15th November 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks of the election outweigh downside risks As the markets have not fully priced in the Conservatives winning the general election on 12th December and securing a Brexit deal, if that were to happen we suspect the pound would climb from $1.28... 13th November 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy could hit the government’s lead in the polls Although we estimate that the 0.2% q/q contraction in GDP in Q2 was followed by a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3, it is clear that the economy is spluttering rather than firing on all cylinders. We think that... 6th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook remains bleak Although the euro-zone economy grew by more than expected in Q3, helped by solid growth in France and Spain, the overall picture remains fairly gloomy. Euro-zone GDP expanded by only 0.2% q/q, and... 6th November 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Further upside for sterling if Brexit deal is approved If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end... 22nd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack NOK to fall further before reversing course next year While the Swiss and Swedish economies appear to have contracted in Q3, mainland GDP growth in Norway is chugging along nicely. And even though activity is set to slow in 2020, Norway will remain a... 17th October 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Easing cycles have further to run In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most... 16th October 2019 · 21 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing to a crawl There have been one or two positive signs in the past week or so, such as the increase in German industrial production in August. But the overall picture remains gloomy. Indeed, at face value the... 8th October 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling bumping into Brexit ceiling Equity markets have recovered much of their losses in recent weeks and, after hitting multi-year lows at the start of September, sterling and bond yields have also rebounded. (See Chart 1.) This is... 23rd September 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Ups and downs in Swiss bonds echo Bitcoin frenzy The ebbs and flows in investor risk appetite in recent months have resulted in a rollercoaster ride for the Swiss government bond market. The run-up in the price of Swiss 50-year government bonds... 13th September 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Avoiding a recession…for now While the 0.2% q/q decline in GDP in Q2 and the further falls in the IHS Markit/CIPS activity PMIs in August mean that there is a real risk of a recession, there are reasons to believe that GDP will... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Services sector holding up well for now In the face of the downturn in manufacturing, the services sector is still holding up well. Indeed, the business activity index of the services PMI survey suggests that output in the sector is growing... 5th September 2019 · 11 mins read
