Global Economics Chart Pack Past the worst, but recovery to be uneven After falling by around 6% q/q in Q1, world GDP looks set for an equally sharp slump in the second quarter. As major advanced economies are following Asia’s lead in easing containment measures, global... 19th May 2020 · 15 mins read
Commodities Weekly China to the rescue? This week has provided further tentative signs of a revival in commodities demand. China’s industrial production bounced back in April and weekly data in the US suggest that the pick-up in gasoline... 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Investors may have got ahead of themselves Industrial commodities prices posted strong gains this week on the back of signs of a relaxation of quarantine measures in Europe and the US, which fuelled hopes that demand would recover soon... 7th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still a bumpy road ahead Despite a raft of terrible economic data, industrial commodity prices ended the week broadly flat, except for oil prices which rose sharply. Attention is turning to the potential relaxation of... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly No respite for oil yet Well-placed fears that the world is fast running out of storage for crude buffeted oil prices this week. On an extraordinary day of trading, the spot price of WTI fell deep into negative territory on... 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Energy returns likely to underwhelm even if oil prices rebound While we expect energy prices to recover a long way in percentage terms, we think that returns will underwhelm, and doubt that they will exceed those from global equities by much. 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a recovery News of a record 9.7m bpd cut to output by OPEC and its allies failed to prop up oil prices, which fell again this week. As long as virus-containment measures continue to depress demand, we expect oil... 17th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices hang on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting Despite the apparent conviction of US President Trump, much uncertainty remains over whether Saudi Arabia and Russia will manage to strike a deal in today’s OPEC+ meeting. Our best guess is that the... 9th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on OPEC+ (again) The price of Brent crude surged by 30% this week after President Trump suggested that Saudi Arabia and Russia were close to agreeing an eye-watering 15m bpd output cut to combat COVID-19’s hit to... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply cuts unlikely to lift prices yet Commodity prices are still highly volatile, but they have remained in the doldrums this week despite the rally in other risky assets, notably equities. We have argued for some time that until the... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices still on thin ice Industrial commodity prices slumped this week amid virus-related economic disruption in the US and Europe and rising concerns about a deeper economic downturn in Asia, particularly China. Meanwhile... 20th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Fed swap lines might not be enough to stop the dollar’s rise While the additional swap lines announced by the Fed today seem to have given respite to a few embattled currencies, they may not be sufficient to stop the dollar in its tracks. We think that the... 19th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Sovereign bond yields still being driven up by fire selling Today’s further big increases in the yields of US Treasuries and UK Gilts appear to reflect continued fire selling of “safe” assets to cover losses on “riskier” ones, rather than worries about the... 18th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still some way from the bottom Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets. Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Even crisis-level policy rates might not boost Treasuries from here Even if the coronavirus affects the US economy by more than we are anticipating in our baseline scenario, we doubt that Treasury yields will fall to even lower levels. 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Virus is prompting a rethink of forecasts The prices of almost all commodities plunged this week amid fears that the coronavirus is morphing into a pandemic, with negative implications for global economic activity and commodities demand... 28th February 2020 · 7 mins read
