Commodities Outlook Turning a corner in 2020 While there appears to be little to lift spirits in the near term, we think the macro-economic backdrop for commodity markets will turn more positive during 2020. We expect global economic growth to... 18th October 2019 · 25 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks surged last week in part because of a decline in refinery throughput. We expect further builds in stocks over the next few months as the US economy slows, which will curb gasoline... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trade talk optimism could prove misguided With little in the way of major economic data releases this week, most commodity prices rose on the back of news that the US and China may agree a “mini deal” as part of ongoing trade talks. This... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Strong US ethanol output to boost corn prices While we broadly agree with the USDA’s latest corn supply forecasts, we are more positive about demand owing to recent changes to US ethanol policy. As a result, we expect corn prices to rise in the... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Growth concerns to the fore Most industrial commodity prices fell this week as concerns about global economic growth intensified. A raft of weak economic data from the US and the euro-zone seems to suggest that the recent... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Seasonal factors to boost gas and coal prices in Q4 Energy prices diverged in September. There were strong gains in European gas and coal prices in part owing to strikes at France’s utilities at a time when seasonal demand is also picking up. Meanwhile... 3rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased last week as inputs to refineries fell. We expect crude stocks to continue to rise in the coming months as a weaker US economy leads to softer growth in gasoline demand. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Still too soon to turn positive Oil prices dipped in September despite the attacks on Saudi Aramco. In contrast, the prices of most other commodities increased owing to a rise in investor risk appetite. However, we expect US... 1st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Little on the horizon to lift investor sentiment As the fall-out from the attacks on Aramco began to fade, the spotlight swung firmly back to concerns about global economic activity this week with falls in the prices of most industrial commodities... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back in focus There was a rude awakening for the oil market last weekend as a missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, allegedly backed by Iran, removed around 50% of Saudi capacity. As the dust settled... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose last week largely owing to a decline in refinery inputs. Relatively high stocks will continue to reassure the market that there are ample supplies to cover outrages in Saudi... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Price gains lack fundamental support The apparent thaw in US-China trade relations gave most industrial commodity prices a lift, but we have seen these sort of ‘goodwill’ gestures before and doubt that the two sides are any closer to... 13th September 2019 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices. 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Grim outlook for Pacific coal prices The usual seasonal uplift in demand should support the price of Pacific coal until end-2019. However, we expect average prices to fall in the years ahead owing in large part to weaker demand prospects... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
