Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack No relief for prices yet Oil prices plummeted in March under the weight of a collapse in demand and pledges from OPEC+ members to significantly raise output. Most other commodity prices also fell last month as the COVID-19... 1st April 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply cuts unlikely to lift prices yet Commodity prices are still highly volatile, but they have remained in the doldrums this week despite the rally in other risky assets, notably equities. We have argued for some time that until the... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to fall to its lowest level since 2014 The coronavirus is disrupting global economic activity by much more than we had previously thought. As a result, we now expect global oil demand to fall by 6.5% in 2020 to just under 94m bpd. 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose a touch last week. We expect bigger increases in the coming weeks given that refineries have announced plans to curb output in response to the virus-related slump in product... 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How the coronavirus impacts the agriculturals Stockpiling and labour shortages associated with the coronavirus have supported the prices of some agricultural commodities, particularly the grains, in recent weeks. However, once the virus-related... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices still on thin ice Industrial commodity prices slumped this week amid virus-related economic disruption in the US and Europe and rising concerns about a deeper economic downturn in Asia, particularly China. Meanwhile... 20th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update What higher OPEC+ supply means for the oil market OPEC+’s decision to abandon output constraint has been a factor behind the ongoing slump in oil prices. In our view, higher OPEC+ supply will weigh heavily on US shale output, prices and the risk... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Coronavirus to continue to weigh on prices Energy prices have crashed in recent weeks as the coronavirus has disrupted economic activity and reduced demand. Meanwhile, on the supply side, OPEC+ failed to agree to deepen its oil output cuts. We... 16th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still some way from the bottom Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets. Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) OPEC production slumped in February owing to supply disruption in Libya. However, given that the current output agreement expires in March and with no replacement deal, we expect OPEC+ oil production... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil price slump - this time it is different Oil prices have crashed by about 40% since end-January owing to the coronavirus-related demand shock and the collapse of OPEC+ output restraint. Following previous oil price crashes (2008 and 2015-16)... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices plunge as Russia refuses to play ball Oil prices closed below $50 per barrel this week for the first time in two years as Russia refused to rollover or deepen OPEC+ output cuts at the latest meeting with OPEC in Vienna. As a result, we... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices still searching for the bottom Commodity prices continued to fall in February as the coronavirus, which started in China, spread to most other regions of the world and sparked fears of a slowdown in global economic activity. We... 4th March 2020 · 8 mins read
OPEC Watch Collapse in prices to force OPEC+ to cut output We expect OPEC+ to agree to an emergency output cut of an additional 1m bpd for at least three months at its meeting later this week. This should, at a minimum, put a temporary floor under prices. 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Virus is prompting a rethink of forecasts The prices of almost all commodities plunged this week amid fears that the coronavirus is morphing into a pandemic, with negative implications for global economic activity and commodities demand... 28th February 2020 · 7 mins read
